The Bear Steepener Is Here: Are Banks Positioned for It?
The Bear Steepener Is Here: Are Banks Positioned for It? As of mid-February 2026, the U.S. Treasury curve is exhibiting a classic bear steepener . Long-term rates are rising materially faster than short-term rates, a non-parallel shift signaling persistent inflation expectations, resilient nominal growth, and a significant increase in Treasury supply. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Yield Curve Snapshot (February 11, 2026) Maturity Yield (%) Change (1-Week) 2-Year 3.53% +3 bps 10-Year 4.19% +22 bps 30-Year 4.85% +15 bps 2s10s Spread +66 bps Widening The steepening is clear, aggressive, and long-end driven. For bank leadership, this move demands an immediate pivot from "waiting for cuts" to managing a "higher-for-longer" duration shock. 1. NIM & Pricing Discipl...